Russia, Georgia, Ossetia and the chessboard
From the distance of thousands of miles and limited by the brief and somewhat repetitious news reports on mainstream media, it is difficult to know what to make of the situation in the Caucasus. Some observations can be teased out that give the situation thought-provoking elements. Russia's continuing assertion that it is "peacekeeping" on behalf of the "wronged" Ossetians while continuing to maneuver large armored units around Georgia is hard to see as anything but a clear statement of intent to us in America, to the neighboring republics, and to the Russian people. "You're not the boss of me." in a nutshell. If I had to guess, I'd say Russian forces are 'declawing' Georgia by taking out their military sites, stockpiles, and capabilities. When they do decide to leave, Georgia's ability to exert force even in its own defence will be constrained. And how does America come across to the world, saying "stop thief!" when we have no ability to act? Not so good.
The propaganda war is taking place ferociously on television but notably on YouTube where people are forwarding posts and news stories. FoxNews aired an interview with a 12 year old Ossetian American girl who was in Tskinvali visiting relatives when the Georgians began bombarding the city. She escaped via Russia and flew back to SF. Her mother, also present, made a point of asserting that the Georgians were to blame for the whole problem. Russia Today television broadcasts online and many news segments interviewing distraught Ossetians who supported Moscow as well as assertions that the Georgian attack killed thousands are posted.
Video footage of Russian forces shows some soldiers wearing white armbands. This, apparently, marks those people as south Ossetian irregulars. The fact that they are intermingled with regular Russian troops is notable. The failure of regular troops to restrain their behavior, as in the hijacking of cars from UN officials in Gori, suggests that the Ossetians truly are likely to be less restrained behind the lines. Footage alleging to show Russian soldiers looting Georgian military barracks and stealing clothes certainly leaves a negative impression, and it is hard to say whether these are regulars or Ossetians. American and other television outlets have interviewed fleeing Georgians from Ossetia and the area around Gori, and they've described similar kinds of attacks. One woman described Ossetian irregulars pouring gas on their livestock and setting them on fire.
Truth telling across the board is in short supply. Russia asserted that its troops were in Poti even as video of such troops was being shown. The Georgian attack on South Ossetia is being minimized in many western discussions as part of the tangled mess here but its effect and the judgement of Georgian leaders make it important to put on the table honestly.
As an American with only limited knowledge and understanding of these complexities, I find myself asking "Where are the parties headed?" And if we understand that, where should we be going?" My guess is that the Russian are not finished with asserting themselves. And the stirring up of tribal tensions in these areas is not in our interest at all. I'd like to hear a clearer message from the two men who are vying to be President, one that gave me confidence that they have some grasp of what's real and what our response should be.
The propaganda war is taking place ferociously on television but notably on YouTube where people are forwarding posts and news stories. FoxNews aired an interview with a 12 year old Ossetian American girl who was in Tskinvali visiting relatives when the Georgians began bombarding the city. She escaped via Russia and flew back to SF. Her mother, also present, made a point of asserting that the Georgians were to blame for the whole problem. Russia Today television broadcasts online and many news segments interviewing distraught Ossetians who supported Moscow as well as assertions that the Georgian attack killed thousands are posted.
Video footage of Russian forces shows some soldiers wearing white armbands. This, apparently, marks those people as south Ossetian irregulars. The fact that they are intermingled with regular Russian troops is notable. The failure of regular troops to restrain their behavior, as in the hijacking of cars from UN officials in Gori, suggests that the Ossetians truly are likely to be less restrained behind the lines. Footage alleging to show Russian soldiers looting Georgian military barracks and stealing clothes certainly leaves a negative impression, and it is hard to say whether these are regulars or Ossetians. American and other television outlets have interviewed fleeing Georgians from Ossetia and the area around Gori, and they've described similar kinds of attacks. One woman described Ossetian irregulars pouring gas on their livestock and setting them on fire.
Truth telling across the board is in short supply. Russia asserted that its troops were in Poti even as video of such troops was being shown. The Georgian attack on South Ossetia is being minimized in many western discussions as part of the tangled mess here but its effect and the judgement of Georgian leaders make it important to put on the table honestly.
As an American with only limited knowledge and understanding of these complexities, I find myself asking "Where are the parties headed?" And if we understand that, where should we be going?" My guess is that the Russian are not finished with asserting themselves. And the stirring up of tribal tensions in these areas is not in our interest at all. I'd like to hear a clearer message from the two men who are vying to be President, one that gave me confidence that they have some grasp of what's real and what our response should be.
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