North Africa

I studied North African politics in the 1970s under John Damis at the Portland State University Middle East Studies Center.  I remember clearly that one of his premisses was that revolutions never take place when populations of illiterate, destitute, starving people are oppressed.  Revolutions take place when people who have expectations, education, and training are consistently cut out of the benefits in their culture.  The countries we are watching erupt in rebellion-Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Egypt, and others all have a growing number of young adults who are educated but have no prospects.  They have systems that are closed to merit and are mercilessly corrupt.  The unraveling of the regimes of North Africa and other parts of the Arab world are long overdue.  And these rebels,  these Googlers and cell phoners, are indeed an Islamic tidal wave but they are not an Islamic tidal wave that simply began memorizing the Koran in a madras.   We should not be quick to judge what will happen because new forms and amalgamations of the social contracts we call 'countries' may arise out of what now seems chaos.   At the same time it is true that we will likely see wrenching conflict between older, traditionalist forces in these countries and the new, younger Islamic modernists.   There is no guarantee what the outcomes will be.  But I am excited that it appears the status quo of the last sixty years seems to be crumbling in the face of impulses of democracy, opportunity, fairness, and hope.   Scary but the only possible way in which these areas of the world can be transformed.