Iraq now

"I told you so" is becoming a common theme for supporters of the war in Iraq and, in particular, for the Republican ticket. The 'surge' is touted as having been a vastly successful strategy that, coupled with 'stay the course', will bring us to 'victory'. Several elements of this crowing glee are disturbing to me. Apart from the success or failure of our military and related strategies in Iraq, the original question of whether we were right (as in ethics) to invade Iraq is still, in my opinion, answered in the negative. Preemptive war against bad people because they are evil and oppressive isn't sufficient justification. If it were, there would be a long list of evil and oppressive regimes to take down, an almost endless list. Beyond that discussion, though, is the assertion that the surge was a successful strategy which will bring us to victory. There is no question that violence in Iraq fell off sharply as the American force increased. As part of our effort, Sunni forces disenchanted with the fringe militants were courted and persuaded, with both cash and logic, that they were better off with us than against us. Simultaneously, the second largest Shia militia, the Sadr army, stood down. With few exceptions, the force exerted against US soldiers and the internecine conflict among Islamic forces fell off sharply. Not to minimize the effectiveness of American arms in isolating and searching through hotspots nor in getting the Iraqi army to take effective lead, but it is not clear right now that our departure won't see a return to conflict. Is victory, in the eyes of those who are crowing about it, a free and democratic Iraq? That was our early assertion. However, the current government though elected, is far from a representative body in function. The Al Maliki Shia leadership has ties to the largest Shia militia which has not weighed in to this conflict in a big way. At least some in the government are already moving in the direction of resuming sectarian violence. Last week a report noted that arrest warrants had been issued by Interior Ministry forces for many of the Sunni leaders who have been cultivated by the US forces. The potential for violence in that strategy is immense. Kurdish issues including Kirkuk's status have stalled the next round of voting because a democratic vote apparently could lead to unacceptable results and more conflict. The Al Maliki government is not spending its own dollars in support of its own national interest at an acceptable rate. Billions are being banked while the US continues to pay. And Iran's 'pot stirring' in Iraq is an unknown disruptive factor. Add to all this the assertion from the Iraqi government that US forces must be gone on a timetable while the US government continues to build the grandiose Baghdad stronghold we're calling our embassy, and the situation does not, in my book, look like 'victory'.