We underestimate the unexpected.
We are way too complacent in our planning and strategizing. We tend to underestimate the impact of the unexpected on what's happening in the world. I suspect there are academicians who've created computer models showing that-overall- individual blips in the landscape of world events rarely derail the large trends. I'd argue, though, that from the view of humans on the ground, events do create large swells of reaction and unexpected events can capsize our best grounded plans. The obvious example in recent memory is September 11th. It changed many people's behavior and continues to do so.
Out there ahead of us in time, there are other events which will have great impact as well. Many of them unforeseen. This morning's news reports hundreds of thousands of people in the streets in Ukraine protesting the election. What impact would civil war in that region have on the rest of the world? What would happen if the President of Pakistan were assassinated and hardliners changed that country's support for our efforts in Afghanistan? What would prevent the rapid spread of bird flu in the First World if one person flew into the country and infected others? Somewhere a scientific team may be on the verge of succeeding in creating 'nano-assemblers'. What happens if they mutate? Or work differently than expected? If the potable water available in our parts of the world was reduced-and many factors could make this happen- how long would our social structures survive the constraints that caused? All of this is unknowable, but I have the sense that we are in an environment where the possibilities for 'something to happen that affects everything else' are increasing exponentially. Which also is why looking backward doesn't give us a good measure of what is likely looking ahead.....the increasing interconnectedness of populations, for example, makes the likely impact of something like influenze much greater than it was in 1918.
Cheery, huh?
Out there ahead of us in time, there are other events which will have great impact as well. Many of them unforeseen. This morning's news reports hundreds of thousands of people in the streets in Ukraine protesting the election. What impact would civil war in that region have on the rest of the world? What would happen if the President of Pakistan were assassinated and hardliners changed that country's support for our efforts in Afghanistan? What would prevent the rapid spread of bird flu in the First World if one person flew into the country and infected others? Somewhere a scientific team may be on the verge of succeeding in creating 'nano-assemblers'. What happens if they mutate? Or work differently than expected? If the potable water available in our parts of the world was reduced-and many factors could make this happen- how long would our social structures survive the constraints that caused? All of this is unknowable, but I have the sense that we are in an environment where the possibilities for 'something to happen that affects everything else' are increasing exponentially. Which also is why looking backward doesn't give us a good measure of what is likely looking ahead.....the increasing interconnectedness of populations, for example, makes the likely impact of something like influenze much greater than it was in 1918.
Cheery, huh?
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